The math is basic, compare the total
number of unknown cards with the number of cards that will complete your hand -
"Outs" the a little division. I.e. You hold four cards to a nut flush
on the turn in Texas Hold'em Poker, there are 46 unknown cards, (52 minus your
two pocket cards and four on the board). Of those 46 cards, 37 cards won't help
you, but those other nine cards are the same suit as your flush draw and any one
of them will give you the nut flush. The odds are 37-to-9, or 4.1-to-1, against
making your draw. Poker players should call a bet in this situation only if the
pot is four times the size of the bet.
Players that like inside straights
and other long shot draws, consider this: You have only four outs on the turn.
That's not much when you consider that 42 of the remaining cards won't help you
at all, and chances of completing your hand are less than nine percent. The odds
against completing your inside straight draw are 10.5-to-1, and you'd need a pot
that's more than ten times the cost of your call in order to make it worthwhile
– pot it this way – you will lose 90% of the time, that’s a lot a chips
wasted for that 1 in 10 chance of making the hand.
The chart below is great – most of the time I can work it out in my head, but
there are those high pressure times I have no read on my opponent, I need chips
to survive the tournament….crap call or fold – remember the chart!! Take the
time to study it….for you math wizards or those that just have to know – I
pulled this from the Internet.
“An easy method involves multiplying your outs by two, then adding two to that
sum. The result is a rough percentage of the chance that you'll make your hand.
Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. You have nine outs. Nine times 2
equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20. That's pretty close to the 19.6 percent
chance you'd come up with if you worked out the answer mathematically. If you
have only four outs, our quick proximate measure (four outs x two, plus two =
ten) is very close to the actual figure of 10.5. If you have 15 outs, our quick
measure yields a figure of 32, while the mathematically precise figure is 32.6
percent. The strategic implications of this are simple: If you have a ten
percent chance of winning, the cost of your call should not be more than ten
percent of the pot's total. With a thirty-two percent chance, you can call a bet
up to one-third the size of the pot. While the "Outs times 2 plus 2"
method is an easy calculation to make at the poker table, it's even easier to
commit the chart to memory. That way you never have to figure a thing. Just tap
into your memory banks and pull out the correct figure. And anytime you find
yourself fighting a tinge of self-doubt, you can always double check yourself
using the "Outs times 2 plus 2" approximation. If you want to estimate
your chances on the flop without the need for much arithmetic, try this: If you
have between one and eight outs, quadruple them. Eight outs multiplied by four
yields 32, while the precise answer is 31.5 percent. With four outs, the
quadrupling method yields 16 percent, while the accurate answer is 16.5 percent.
With nine outs ¾ a common situation, because it represents the number of outs
to a four-flush ¾ quadruple the number of outs and subtract one. You'll be
spot-on when you do, since the arithmetical answer is 35 percent. You can use
this method up to 12 outs, though with 12 outs our shortcut method yields 47
percent, while the precise answer is only 45 percent. For 13 through 16 outs,
quadruple the number of outs, subtract four, and your results won't be anymore
than two percent off dead center. And remember, anytime you find yourself with
14 outs or more, you are an odds-on favorite to make your hand and pot odds of
any size become worthwhile.”
Here is the chart – if playing online print and keep handy – if playing at a
casino – memorize it!!
Odds and Outs
Flop to River Turn to River
Outs Draw
Percent Odds Percent Odds
20 67.5
0.48-to-1 43.5 1.30-to-1
19 65.0
0.54-to-1 41.3 1.42-to-1
18 62.4
0.60-to-1 39.1 1.56-to-1
17 59.8
0.67-to-1 37.0 1.71-to-1
16 57.0
0.75-to-1 34.8 1.88-to-1
15 Straight + Flush 54.1 0.85-to-1 32.6 2.07-to-1
14 51.2
0.95-to-1 30.4 2.29-to-1
13 48.1
1.08-to-1 28.3 2.54-to-1
12 45.0
1.22-to-1 26.1 2.83-to-1
11 41.7
1.40-to-1 23.9 3.18-to-1
10 38.4
1.60-to-1 21.7 3.60-to-1
9 Flush 35.0 1.86-to-1 19.6 4.11-to-1
8 Straight 31.5 2.17-to-1 17.4 4.75-to-1
7 27.8
2.60-to-1 15.2
5.57-to-1
6 24.1
3.15-to-1 13.0
6.67-to-1
5 20.3
3.93-to-1 10.9 8.20-to-1
4 Two Pair 16.5 5.06-to-1 8.7 10.50-to-1
3 12.5
7.00-to-1 6.5
14.33-to-1
2
8.4 10.90-to-1
4.3 22.00-to-1
1
4.3 22.26-to-1
2.2 45.00-to-1
Other Probabilities
Wired Pair: flops a set 11.8 percent of the time
A-K: flops at least one ace or king 32.4 percent
Two Suited Cards: Makes a flush 6.5 percent
Two Suited Cards: Flops a flush 0.8 percent
Two Suited Cards: Flops four flush 10.9 percent
Two Unmatched Cards: Flops 2 split pair 2.2 percent
Play smart, let the other guy go for the long shot inside strait draw. You will
end up on the winning site – they will be feeding you bank roll, when you lose
that one in ten suck out at the river – say NH and wait you will get lots of
chances to get it back.
Thanks to TechMan Poker for contributing this article!
Poker Theory - Poker site for the
improvement of poker skills. Site reviews, articles, Blogs, Gambling and Sports
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experienced poker players. Good LuckTechMan
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